How to Make Brexit a Great Success
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We know the SNP and their Green puppets are working for Brexit to fail because they think it will serve their separatist purposes.
In this major 4,000-word Position Paper, Alistair McConnachie outlines A Force For Good's Philosophy on Brexit which we will use to guide our Position and inspire our Policies on this matter in the coming years.
As Alistair points out, there is a great deal to be optimistic about and a successful Brexit can push the Nationalists once more to the margins.
Pic: Alistair wields the Sword of Sovereignty to cut down the Globalist Totem Pole. Published on this site on 4 December 2017.
SNP HOPING BREXIT BRINGS ECONOMIC DISASTER
Central to the SNP strategy to promote and win a second referendum is to hope that Brexit will fail.
They and their supporters talk about waiting for "Brexit to bite" in the expectation that people will become so discontented with the United Kingdom that they will want to destroy it!
For the SNP (and its puppet Party, the Greens), the idea of simply using the powers of the Scottish Parliament to get the best Brexit deal for Scotland within the UK is not part of their agenda.
Think about how horrible that is and what it says about our Scottish political culture.
We are being "led" by "politicians" who are hoping and planning and depending upon a failure of the Scottish, and wider British, economy!
They and their supporters are actually counting on things to go wrong. If we have a successful economy as a consequence of Brexit then they will be unhappy.
If people are doing well as a result, then their best laid scheme will gang agley!
Truly, the political scene in Scotland is benighted under their dismal "leadership".
With Scottish Nationalists (SNP and Greens) deliberately attempting to undermine Brexit and to work for it to fail, it is no longer possible for Unionists to "sit on the fence" on this matter.
Regardless of whether one voted Remain or Leave – our strategy as Unionists must now be to ensure Brexit is not only successful, but hugely and visibly so!
This Position Paper examines:
Part 1. What Leaving the EU (Brexit) Means
Part 2. Understanding the SNP Strategy to Exploit Brexit
Part 3. Why Scotland will not Join the EU
Part 4. How to Make Brexit a Success – 12 Benefits of a Full British Brexit
Part 5. No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal
Before we examine what leaving means, we first need to know what membership means.
PART 1
WHAT MEMBERSHIP OF THE EU MEANS
The EU consists of the Single Market and the Customs Union.
The Single Market is a common set of internal trading rules for every Member State. It consists of "the 4 freedoms": Free movement of goods, services, capital and persons.
The Customs Union is the scheme which sets the common external Tariff Barriers into the EU.
The European Commission negotiates for and on behalf of the Union as a whole in international deals, rather than each Member State negotiating individually. It is not possible for a Member State to set its own trade deals.
The Single Market and Customs Union are policed by the European Court of Justice (ECJ).
WHAT BREXIT MEANS
There is no "Hard" or "Soft" Brexit. It can only mean one thing.
It means coming out of the Single Market and Customs Union, being no longer subject to the European Commission and the ECJ, and paying no Membership Fee (currently around 17bn a year, see below).
A "Soft Brexit" would mean coming out of the Customs Union, but staying in the Single Market and being subject to "the 4 freedoms" and the rule of the ECJ – which is no Brexit at all!
As Liam Halligan and Gerard Lyons say in their new book, Clean Brexit:
Soft Brexit would leave Britain in a dangerous halfway house. Inside the single market, the UK would become a 'rule-taker' – still subject to rulings of the highly politicised European Court of Justice.We would be bound by huge restrictions on our economic and political freedom, but no longer able to vote on or influence those rules, even if they were changed to Britain's disadvantage.
And, of course, single market membership would mean continued multi-billion pound annual payments to Brussels and 'freedom of movement'.
This isn't Brexit – and would be viewed by millions of voters as an affront to the referendum result.
Customs union membership also prevents Britain from striking trade deals with nations outside the EU – countries accounting for four-fifths of the global economy.
This is a serious disadvantage for the UK, given our deep cultural and historic links with a wide variety of nations.
As the global centre of economy gravity shifts decisively east, it is vital for our future prosperity that Britain engages more with the world's fastest-growing and most populous markets. 1
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EU AND UK
Some Scottish Nationalists try to draw a false equivalence between Scotland's membership of the UK and the UK's membership of the EU.
However, the EU is a political State made up of member Nations, whereas the UK is a Nation in its own right.
The UK leaving the EU is about a Nation leaving a political State; whereas Scotland leaving the UK is about a Nation itself being dismantled and destroyed!
PART 2
UNDERSTANDING THE SNP STRATEGY TO EXPLOIT BREXIT
The SNP's Political Aim
The SNP's political aim is not to look out for the best interests of Scotland 'within the UK'. It never so much as pays lip-service to that concept!
Listen closely and you'll notice they never mention the phrase "the best interests of Scotland in the UK".
Rather, its aim is the deliberate revolutionary aim of destroying the UK.
Destruction of the UK is the raison d'etre of the modern SNP as a political movement.
Consequently, it should be noted that the SNP's strategy on Brexit is founded only on the principle of causing maximum distress to the British State – and not what is best for Scotland within the UK.
Furthermore, its position on Brexit is not a logical or rational political position based on a careful reasoning of the facts. Instead, the SNP will go in whatever direction it thinks furthers the goal of separation, regardless of the facts.
The Strategy of Private "Wur Doomed" Sturgeon
We believe Ms Sturgeon has accepted the inevitability of Brexit.
Nevertheless, she wants to form a majority administration at the 2021 Holyrood election (or a coalition with her puppets, the Greens) in order that she can try to call for a second separation referendum.
In order to build up enough steam for a second referendum she must pretend that Brexit will mean "Wur Doomed, Entombed and Marooned".
Therefore, her strategy is to foment discontent with Brexit through the following tactics:
1. Complain that Westminster is 'Stealing Powers' from Scotland
For example, she will claim that Westminster is denying the Scottish Parliament the returning powers which she believes rightfully belong to it. She uses the phrase "power grab".
The reality is that many of these returning powers will need to stay with the British Parliament because they relate to areas where a common UK-wide approach is necessary in order to protect the internal British single market.
However, this is quite a technocratic argument and Ms Sturgeon depends for its success on most people not having a clue about how these things work in the first place.
We advise the British Parliament to ensure it retains the necessary powers to protect the integral nature of the UK as a Unitary State.
2. Complain that Westminster is Cheating Scotland Financially
Whatever deal is worked out, you can be sure that Ms Sturgeon will present it as Scotland having been 'robbed'.
Indeed, the British government could pledge the entire "£350 million pounds a week" to Scotland instead of "to the NHS" and she would still say it was too little too late!
There is no way she will ever turn round and say "Thank You" – regardless of the deal at the end of the day. That is not the nature of the beast we are dealing with.
The SNP's Modus Operandi is to take whatever you give them without a word, bank it, then act like they never received it.
That's how they always behave. If you don't understand that by now then you haven't been paying attention!
3. Hope that Brexit will Fail and Economic Catastrophe will Ensue
Her third approach is to hope that "Brexit will Bite" economically. Even when it doesn't, she will work to do everything to give that false impression.
This will also allow her to present the economic failings of the SNP, and her Green Party puppets, as the fault of "Westminster".
We've already mentioned how awful this is!
The SNP/Green administration is actually banking on Brexit to fail and the economy to collapse in order that it can exploit the circumstances to promote a second referendum.
Their own survival as political parties depends upon the failure of Brexit and a collapsing economy!
They want to exploit such appalling circumstances in order to promote a referendum which would, itself, create further instability; and which – if it were ever to be "won" by them – would institute social, civic and cultural chaos and division in Scotland for generations!
Instead of talking up the potential of Brexit (see below); instead of talking up the economy as any good leader would do; instead of creating a sense of hope for the future which can inspire people to get up in the morning; instead of encouraging individuals and businesses to invest in our society; instead of all this, the SNP/Green coalition is actually hoping for our economy to collapse in on itself.
And they are speaking and acting in the hope that those circumstances will come to pass.
Our own "leaders" aim to demoralise us.
Truly, political leadership in Scotland doth suck!
PART 3
SCOTLAND JOINING THE EU IS A NON-STARTER
But what if it came to pass that Brexit was a disaster?
This is unlikely, but if it came to pass then it would still require the SNP/Green parties to make the case that Scotland would be better off outside the UK.
It is difficult to see how – even if Scotland were suffering badly as a result of Brexit – how an argument could be made that it could possibly be better off outside the UK!
If Scotland was not doing well inside the UK, people would want to know how it could possibly do better outside it.
In this case, Private Sturgeon would have to start talking up the idea of Scotland joining the EU – whether she wanted to or not.
That policy is unlikely to fly with voters in Scotland for several reasons.
1. The EU Does Not Want Scotland
a. Scotland would be a recipient Member State, not a donor of funds.
b. The EU does not want to reward separatist countries which have broken away from larger Member States.
2. Scotland would have to join the Euro
Virtually nobody in Scotland is going to look on the Euro as a safer currency than the pound.
3. Scotland would have to Open Up its Borders Again
If Brexit was anything, it was a vote against globalism and against mass immigration. To make a case to reverse Brexit, the SNP has to argue for globalism and for mass immigration.
This is a real Achilles Heel, which the SNP has been able to balance precariously on for so long because it faces no effective opposition to this position in Scotland among the establishment parties.
Let's remember that every major political figure from every major party in Scotland (except UKIP) was for Remain yet still over 1 million voters in Scotland rejected the establishment party position.
However, the reality is that people in Scotland don't want more immigration anymore than people in England, regardless of how much the media might tell us we "need" it.
4. Scotland 'exports' 4 times more to rest of UK than EU
Regardless of how badly Brexit might have gone, it seems politically unlikely that the SNP could seriously argue that we would be better off leaving the UK single market with which we do the overwhelming amount of our trade, and join another trading block with which we do less!
For example, figures released in Jan 2017 show that 'exports' from Scotland to the rest of the UK in 2015 were £49.8bn; exports to the EU £12.3bn; and exports to the rest of the world £16.4bn. 2
Could the SNP really argue for, and win, a referendum which pivoted around the ideas of joining another trading block outside the UK, and with which we do far less trade; adopt the euro; expose ourselves to unlimited levels of immigration; and all this when we are not even wanted by the EU in the first place?
It does seem unlikely.
However, at the end of the day, we accept that much depends upon the politicians and circumstances of the moment. We acknowledge that in the specific period of an intense referendum campaign, reason and logic often take a back seat to emotion.
After all, in the 2-year period of the 2012-2014 referendum campaign, an additional 25% (up from a hard-core 20%) were persuaded to vote for Scottish independence based largely upon emotional exploitation and a false prospectus.
However, here is the good news.
PART 4
BREXIT WILL BE A SUCCESS!
The fact is that Brexit is going to happen!
The best way to put the brakes on the SNP, their Green Party stooges, and the separatist movement in general, is to ensure that Brexit will be a great success.
It is not for us to confuse this important matter with dried-up, complicated, self-destructive notions such as "Federalism" which are irrelevant to the debate anyway and which will only help the Nationalists in the long-run – Scottish Labour Party please take note!
Nor is it for us to sit on the fence any longer and think that – as Unionists – we can somehow avoid taking sides on Brexit.
It is for us, as Unionists, to commit to this process and ensure it will be a great success.
We must ensure it will be so successful that its success will confound the curses which are being put upon it by the Nationalists.
We must ensure it is so successful that people see the over-whelming advantages of remaining part of the United Kingdom; as well as the pointlessness and impossibility of ever joining the EU.
We must ensure it is so successful that it renders the independence debate redundant, and leaves it behind as we enter a new chapter of the British Story.
If we can do this then we can silence the separatists for a very long time!
In this regard, the chances are high that Brexit will be a great success – providing we have imaginative and patriotic leadership.
In the rest of this Position Paper, we're going to examine the obvious potential which is now opening up to us.
Let's list 12 Benefits of a Full British Brexit!
1. TAKE BACK THE BILLIONS and BE RICHER FOR IT!
We will save Britain the £17 billion a year which we pay in taxes and give to the EU, and use it instead to spend on hospitals, schools, transport, industry, agriculture, and jobs, right here, right now.
The projects in Scotland which claim to be funded by the EU simply represent our own money coming back to us! Scotland, and all of Britain, can only stand to prosper when we leave the EU.
According to Treasury figures: In 2016/17 the UK made an estimated gross contribution of £17bn (16.9) before the Rebate.
If we include all the monies which come back to us, the Treasury estimates a UK average annual net contribution of £7.1bn between 2010 and 2014. 3
It can be argued that the "net contribution" should actually include the monies which come back to us because they must be spent in a manner required by the EU and not necessarily spent in ways that a sovereign British Parliament would choose.
In that regard, the analogy is giving £17,000 to a contractor to redecorate your home. He hands you £10,000 of it back but you're required by law to redecorate according to his design!
2. NO DANGER OF HAVING TO BAIL OUT EURO
We won't have to bail out the failing economies of the eurozone – again saving potential billions!
3. VAST POTENTIAL IN NEW TRADE DEALS
The British economy is one of the largest in the world. It will prosper outside the EU where opportunities abound when we base a programme upon trade with 194 other countries world-wide, instead of only 27 in the EU.
Coming out of the Customs Union should do wonders for exports.
Scotch Whisky has a massive potential market in India, for example! Scottish Speciality Foods have huge potential in the British-Diaspora in the Commonwealth, as well as in the USA.
Of course, the down-side would be if the "free trade" deals prejudiced other producers in the UK, who have hitherto been protected against such competition when they were in the EU.
4. MORE JOB OPPORTUNITIES and HIGHER WAGES
Open-door immigration keeps wages down for the low-skilled. With less competition from EU workers, it is to be presumed that opportunities, especially for British citizens at the lower end of the skills market, will be enhanced.
Furthermore, wages might rise to meet the need.
5. NO 'STABILITY AND GROWTH PACT' means MORE MONEY FOR PUBLIC SERVICES
We've mentioned the money which we will no longer be required to give the EU and which can be spent at home instead.
Furthermore, the EU's Stability and Growth Pact requires each Member State to keep its Budget Deficit (the annual amount it has to borrow to meet the shortfall between its tax receipts and its expenditure) below 3% of its Gross Domestic Product (the total value of goods and services which it produces).
This has led to governments seeking innovative schemes to raise money, such as raising money from the private money markets – schemes which are more expensive in the long-term than the cheaper method of government borrowing.
Outside the EU, we will no longer be required to participate in these expensive exercises.
Therefore, it is possible that more could be spent on public services.
6. PRIORITISE, INVEST, and GROW BRITISH INDUSTRY and JOBS
Hitherto, membership has constrained British governments from responding to our own economic needs.
It has blocked the road forward to rebuilding industry and creating jobs.
It has strangled small business with the dead-hand of bureaucracy and the red tape of over-regulation, threatening the spirit of initiative and free enterprise, and the life of small businesses and, ultimately, local jobs.
Outside the EU, we could, potentially, engage in a variety of interventionist policies which are not possible within the EU.
For example, we could – if the government is so minded:
- Favour the set-up of domestic firms by investment.
- Subsidise existing ones with state aid if necessary.
- Levy taxes to invest in particular industries.
- Discriminate in favour of local producers.
- Prevent firms closing down and moving production outside the UK.
- Take firms into public ownership if necessary.
Leaving the EU opens up new opportunities for investment and industrial growth and employment that are currently barred under the treaty constraints.
7. OFFER CONTRACTS TO BRITISH COMPANIES ONLY
Within the EU, governments are bound by procurement laws which require them to open up contracts to foreign companies.
Outside the EU – if the government is so minded – it should be easier to invite tenders from British companies only.
8. SAVE BRITAIN'S FISH and FISHING COMMUNITIES
We will soon be free to re-establish control of our 200-mile fishing zone.
With proper management, we should be able to stop over-fishing and, if necessary, grant licenses for the British fishing grounds, which could be worth billions a year to the Exchequer.
This money could be used to regenerate coastal communities.
We should be able to achieve the policy objectives of rebuilding fishing communities and ensuring proper environmental management of fish stocks.
In the face of this opportunity, is the SNP really going to argue that Scottish Fishermen should be back in the EU?
9. SUPPORT FARMING
British farming will continue to require subsidies to survive in the world market.
However, there will be opportunities to target a system of support towards a sustainable programme which encourages national self-sufficiency, small farms, mixed farming, land fertility, young farmers, farm start-ups, rural employment, local production and distribution networks, organic production, food quality, and projects which protect the environment.
10. CHEAPER FOOD?
Some advocates for Leave have long argued that food prices are kept artificially high as a result of import tariffs into the EU.
Whether leaving the EU will indeed reduce general UK food prices remains to be seen.
However, we would not want this to happen at the expense of our own Agricultural Sector!
11. ABOLISH OR LOWER VAT
Perhaps it is wishful thinking, but at least the prospect of abolishing VAT can now be discussed.
This was impossible as a member of the EU because the EU requires every Member State to adopt a VAT rate.
At the very least, VAT could be lowered; and presumably there is no danger now that it could be applied to food and children's clothing.
We're making these caveats because we are well aware that there is no party on the scene which advocates any of these clear possibilities!
12. AVOID TTIP
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership has been widely viewed as an attempt to raise the power of private companies over elected governments.
It may have been put on the back burner for now, but the EU continues to promote such schemes.
Outside the EU, we are not obliged to accept them and – like President Trump did with TTIP – we can remove our country from them entirely.
PART 5
FINALLY, NO DEAL IS BETTER THAN A BAD DEAL
Trade with the rest of the EU will continue since we buy more from the EU than we sell to it. They can't do without us. We are in a very strong position to walk away from a bad deal.
Halligan and Lyons emphasise the importance of being prepared to walk away. As they say:
Ideally, the UK will agree what Theresa May has described as a 'deep and comprehensive' EU free trade deal during the Article 50 period.Yet, settling a complex, multi-sector agreement with 27 governments, which must then be ratified by national parliaments and the European parliament, is probably impossible ahead of March 2019.
That's why the UK must prepare to trade under WTO rules, reoccupying our seat at the Geneva-based trade court and adopting our own tariff schedules.
Trading under WTO rules is often portrayed as a disaster. Yet most trade across the globe is conducted largely under WTO rules.
The US and other leading economies trade with the EU on this basis, with each side paying tariffs that are generally very low.
As such, it is by no means essential for the UK to strike a free-trade agreement with the EU ahead of March 2019.
Failing to grasp this amounts to a major strategic error.
'No deal really is better than a bad deal.' The UK should state this clearly and often.
'No deal' simply means we don't strike an EU free trade agreement before March 2019 – which actually brings benefits.
Under 'no deal', Britain's EU trade deficit would generate substantial net tariff revenues, which could be used to compensate UK exporters.
More fundamentally, negotiating up against a hard deadline means the terms of any resulting agreement, which we must live with for years, would be far worse than a deal settled under less time pressure – once the Article 50 deadline has passed.
Unless 'no deal' is seen as a viable option, though, the UK's negotiating hand will be seriously undermined – so all preparations must be made now to trade under WTO rules. 4
IN SUMMARY...
Membership of the EU has blocked the road forward to re-building industry and creating jobs throughout Britain.
Leaving the EU will now allow our politicians to prioritise, fund and grow British Industry and Jobs – and to do so without any excuses.
Whether they will grasp the new opportunities to revitalise Britain remains to be seen.
After all, poor and unimaginative political leadership on any matter, not just Brexit, can sink us, so we have to hope and pray for wise leaders too!
REFERENCES
1. Liam Halligan and Gerard Lyons, Clean Brexit: Why leaving the EU still makes sense - Building a post-Brexit economy for all. This has been quoted from the extract which was published in the Sunday Telegraph, "The biggest problem with Soft Brexit is that it's not attainable", 17-9-17, pp.6-7 at 6.
2. gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication
3. researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7886
4. Halligan and Lyons, Op Cit at 7.
FURTHER READING
How to Defeat the SNP and Deliver Brexit (23-6-17)
www.aforceforgood.org.uk/vision/uk2
6 Reasons Why Brexit Would Not Lead to Another Scottish Referendum (14-3-16)
www.aforceforgood.org.uk/debunk/brexit1
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